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[Warhammer 40k] Gaming Company Makes Money, but Demoralizes Fanbase
I’m a semi-avid Warhammer 40k player and the game has been hit by a number of small, cumulating drama bits over the last few years, so I thought I’d write them out here in case anyone was interested in learning about them. Disclaimer: I do have some strong opinions on the drama and I have done my best to keep things neutral in this post. Please do feel free to call me out if I let my thoughts about the Stupidface McSpaceymarines show too much. Background information: Warhammer 40k is a tabletop miniature game distributed by Games Workshop (GW). The poster children of 40k have long been Space Marines: the elite, genetically augmented human super-soldiers and it is around them that this story revolves. Warhammer 40k is currently in its 9th edition, with rules for each army distributed in its codex. The factions in Warhammer can be broken down into 3 broad categories. Remember this for later. As listed on GW’s website, they are: the Imperium (all flavors of “good guy” humans, including the aforementioned Space Marines), Chaos (daemons and fallen humans), and Xenos (myriad alien races, including Egyptian robot zombies, communist fish weebs shogunate cow weebs , clown elves, and British soccer hooligan orks). In 2017, GW’s general manager stepped down and new company leadership took over. This is where our story begins. For a while it was good: GW was making record profits, fans were fairly happy, and the hobby seemed in a good place. Then players started realizing that something didn’t smell quite right. 8th Edition and the coming of the Primaris: 8e was released in June 2017, with the new rulebook alongside a Space Marine codex and “Index” books with units for all other armies, so nobody had to wait to play their respective faction. The indices were bare-bones and contained few of the abilities, relics, and special rules that each faction would receive when their full codex was released. 8th edition was also heralded with an entirely new line of Space Marine models, the “Primaris.” These are the tacticool bigger brothers of the “oldmarines” and a massive refresh of the aging Space Marine model line. They are bigger, badder, and shootier. Primaris marines were a hit and sold extremely well and GW profits reach new heights. Over the next year and a half, a new faction’s Codex would release every 3-6 weeks. In a game with 20+ factions, this meant - if you were lucky - you’d get full access to your army’s abilities/relics/units in 6 months. Most armies were covered by the time the edition had been out a year. Depending on whom you ask, this is either an unacceptably long time to wait or surprisingly quick compared to previous editions. At this point, fan morale was fairly high: we saw lots of quality new content, a more-responsive and friendly community face, and promises of hotly-demanded future releases (whooo Sisters!). GW released a steady stream of new Primaris models throughout this edition, flushing out the new line. Capitalizing on the popularity of Primaris, GW took the previously-unheard-of step and released new, turned-up-to-11 Marine codices in 2019, as well as 6 extra Space Marine sub-faction supplements and a new Chaos Space Marine codex. The meta had been fairly healthy and consistently evolving, but these supplements resulted in massive imbalance, buffing a specific Space Marine chapter so much that it near-exclusively dominated tournaments until it was patched. In retrospect, this was a sign of things to come. The long-awaited Sisters of Battle also came out in fall 2019 (whose preorder sold out within minutes) and an expansion called “Psychic Awakening” was released from Oct 2019-July 2020. It was neat lore-wise and contained a few new rules/units, but not otherwise noteworthy. The Gathering Storm: 9th edition was released in July 2020, but was touted as an “8.5e” where your old books and rules would still be valid, with some modifications as to the game itself. This was met with general good will from the players, as the books they bought a month earlier wouldn’t be instantly outdated. As is tradition, it was released with a new, now third Space Marine codex and one for the Necrons (the aforementioned Egyptian zombie robots), as well as a box set containing new units for each army. Unfortunately, this is also where the crux of our drama kicks in. The release box set contained incredibly powerful and divisive Primaris units, Eradicators, which could only be obtained from this $200 USD box. Eradicators are an anti-tank unit new to 9th edition whose mere existence single handedly pushed tanks/armoured units and the factions that relied on them out of the meta. Additional criticism came because the design of the Eradicators came across as “stealing” a specialist xenos unit - Eldar Fire Dragons. For perspective, Fire Dragons and Eradicators cost about the same in-game and have the same role, but Eradicators output far more damage at a longer range and are significantly harder to kill. Fire Dragon models are also 30 years old and look it; the Eldar range is one of the oldest still sold and in desperate need of updating. Understandably, Eldar players were upset. The box also contained the extremely powerful Bladeguard, but they went largely ignored due to the fecal storm Eradicators kicked up. GW then doubled down. Unlike in the previous editions, where the supplement books were saved until the vast majority of codices were released, GW chose to near-exclusively prioritize releasing the Marine supplements, resulting in months of only new Marine books. By now, the strategy was clear: the Primaris money printer was in full BRRR mode. At the time of this writing, seven months into 9th edition, the following rule books are available: 1 xenos faction, 1 chaos faction, 0 Imperium, and 5 Space Marine. Oh...wait. Did I separate Space Marines from Imperium, despite saying above that they’re all one happy family? Apparently not so much. During all of this, GW’s website broke Space Marines out into their own, separate 4th listing that is categorized on top of all other Imperium, chaos, and xenos factions. Players began to notice the trend in model releases more and more, as if the Eradicators were the watershed moment. Since 8e, Marines alone have received the vast plurality/majority of new model releases over the last 3+ years. Remember, they’re still just one faction of about 20 who are now receiving the support of the other 19 combined. While the new Primaris line was positively received initially, the constant drumbeat of new Space Marines with only token attention to other factions began to drive a wedge between players and blowing up grimdank with memes. Even factions that got large rework releases paled in comparison. Other players questioned why so many new Marines were being released when armies were stuck with aged resin models that date back to the Clinton administration (and much older than the pre-Primaris Marines). For example, older armies were stuck with models like this. Worse, GW’s brand of resin (FineCast) is commonly referred to as “FailCast” in the community due to its poor quality and difficulty to work with. This feeling of neglect hit xenos players in particular, though some Imperial factions also had good reason to be upset at the quality of their old old models. Rumbles in the Warp: In retrospect, there were a number of warning signs from GW that issues were brewing. A Hobby Drama post could probably be written about any of these individual events, but here is a TL;DR of each:
The app - GW recently released a long-awaited mobile app that has been plagued with rules errors, intense attempted monetization, and was missing key features like army builders. In GW’s defense, they have been improving it regularly and providing many features for free in the meantime.
Hiding price hikes as “localization” - in response to Brexit and the weakening GBP, GW adopted a locally-based pricing model that came with hidden and significant price hikes in other countries. Fun story: it was cheaper for me to buy models off of their UK website, pay to have them shipped to a reshipping company, and pay for the reshipping and any import taxes to the US rather than to purchase them directly. A lot cheaper.
The Primaris Lieutenant - a meme that emerged after GW released model after model for the same in-game unit (one that most armies would never need more than a couple of), each with slightly different poses. Criticism centered around the idea that the resources to constantly remake this same unit could have been better-allocated.
Death of the Phoenix - a rare xenos vs xenos box set that starred 1 updated hero and 1 updated infantry unit each. Hurray! Except the box was also chock full of less-popular and very old models that there was little demand for. Many still sit unsold on store shelves.
Hobby fatigue and the Bore-us Heresy - with so many rapid-fire Marine releases, some players complained of difficulty keeping pace with both money to buy them and time devoted to modeling. Worse, Marines have been pushed so hard for so long, they have come to dominate the meta such that Marine vs. Marine games are commonplace, which can become repetitive or dull.
Forgotten weapon updates - Several Imperial/Chaos weapons were significantly buffed at the start of 9e, with GW promising to do the same for identical xenos gear...except, when the update came, they hadn’t. The changes appeared haphazard and were missing many weapons that players had reasonably expected to be included. (Sidenote: my personal theory is that they paid an intern to ctrl+f weapon names for updating, but said intern didn’t realize that the names can change based on the faction. For example, this is why the update to flamers was correctly mapped to the Eldar “Dragon’s breath flamer” but the “melta gun” update didn’t apply to the identical-in-all-but-name “fusion gun.” Oops.)
In Defense of Marines: Players on the pro-Marine side frequently point out that a good cause for their preferential treatment exists: money. Undoubtedly, Marines are the most successful single product line, and can you blame GW for milking it? The equally-common counterargument is that it’s a chicken-and-egg issue: that Marines are only the top seller because they get the majority of the new kits, updates, and advertising. Defenders of GW point to a number of other factors on their side: promises of future updates to other factions, that very real possibility Covid may be affecting production, and that older editions have been far more sluggish with content. They also point out that the Necron and Sisters of Battle factions each have received much-needed new model refreshes in the last few years, albeit nowhere near as expansive as their own. Marines were certainly in need of updating when the Primaris line was introduced and it went a long way in helping the supersoldiers fit their lore on the tabletop. While some Marine players were initially concerned that the pre-Primaris armies that they dumped thousands of dollars and at least 3 hours into painting would be suddenly outdated or unusable, GW has continued to support them and point to this as a sign of goodwill. Finale: Unfortunately, there has been no real happy ending to this drama. For some players, the lack of resolution has caused them to hit a stage of burnout: a place of feeling that non-Marine factions deserve attention, but that the complaints are so commonplace that people are just whining now. On the other side of the spectrum, xenos players can feel a learned helplessness, as there’s not much they can but accept their fate and make snarky comments on WarhammerCompetitive. Some people try to hold optimism that the new and improved GW will pull through, burning themselves out on the Primaris line while others put their head down and play as they always have. But the issue barrels forward as the Primaris money printer hums its “brrr” in the background. TL;DR - Gaming company builds bridges of goodwill with fans, then torches them due to impressions of favoritism and greed.
$SLV is not going to get squeezed...$SLV is the Trojan Horse for the squeeze THAT'S ALREADY HAPPENING
I have no horse in the GME "fight" right now. I wish you all the best, and it is the biggest trading mistake of my life so far. I was talking about GME with my friends in March 2020, and even did trade some options then for a loss. I must have read DFV at some point, as we were discussing Burry and a "technical short squeeze" happening. But I missed the real boat, so good on DFV and all of the rest of you degenerates. Instead, I focused my market attention during quarantine on precious metals. My opinion is that in the long term (10+ years) they will provide the only real hedge against inflation in the world as every CB on the planet is exploding the supply of fiat to deal with COVID economic disruption. In the short term, I believe that the "powers that be" are engineering the largest short squeeze in the history of markets. We do not have the power to effect whether this happens, it is simply an inevitability. HFs, banks, and other large institutions are going to extract an enormous amount of wealth from the world during this squeeze. This money will be taken from the future pocket of every consumer of industrial goods for the next several decades in the form of inflated prices on everything: batteries, electronics, solar panels, EVs...even jewelry and silverware. We cannot stop them, but I have decided to try to hop on for the ride. The last few months aside, I never saw WSB as a force for societal change, because the people who control the money are always going to win the most in the end. WSB is a place where we can learn the tricks of a market that is structurally rigged against us, and use those tricks to our advantage. To use an analogy that I think we all know: I am not, and will never be, Ender. But I can learn that the Enemy's Gate is Down, and play The Game that way. The tl;dr is this: the market for silver is the most manipulated physical market in the history of the world. $SLV is the vehicle that is currently being used behind the scenes to vaccum up ownership of every available physical bar of silver in major bullion vaults in the world. When it has completed doing that, the "paper" markets that have held down the price of silver for decades will become disconnected from the physical markets. The energy that has been artificially held back for decades by this paper will explode the price of physical silver, and I have no idea how high it will go. $SLV will stand (mostly) alone as the world's exchange traded product for electronic trading of physical silver.
LET'S START AT THE BEGINNING: WHY IS SILVER IMPORTANT?
Silver has been used as real currency for thousands of years, and there is an argument to be made for returning to "sound" money through the use of silver and gold. However, that is not the argument that I am making. Silver is a highly industrial metal, and it's usage for industry will only continue to expand as we electrify the future. Silver is important for electrical applications b/c it is the most-conductive / least-resistive metal in the universe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_resistivity_and_conductivity#Resistivity_and_conductivity_of_various_materials). It is used heavily in all electronic applications (even more since RoHS has pushed us away from Tin/Lead and towards Tin/Silver solder blends, with silver being added to mitigate the longevity problems of 100% Tin solder growing Tin whiskers and shorting out components). But the largest new demands on silver are going to come from solar panels and EVs. Utility-scale solar is now virtually tied with wind as the cheapest new sources of energy in the world and is only getting cheaper every year. As fossil fuel plants continue to reach the end of their service life, they are going to be replaced with solar and wind technologies. As EVs become more prevalent, their components (ESPECIALLY their batteries) will produce additional demand for Silver. As smart investors are wont to do, this coming demand for industrial silver has been front-run and large quantites of silver have been sucked into investment products so that they can produce financial returns when demand begins to increase. 2020 showed remarkable investor interest in silver, to the tune of an estimated 350Mtoz moving into exchange traded products like $SLV. $SLV alone added ~200Mtoz of silver to it's holdings in 2020. Unfortunately for the market, supply cannot meet demand: Of the 930.9Mtoz estimated for 2020 demand, only 236Mtoz was available for physical investment, because the rest was consumed by industrial uses. This means that $SLV alone absorbed almost the entire world's capacity for silver investment in 2020, and as you'll see soon, this is only accelerating in 2021. Source for demand/supply/investment numbers: https://www.silverinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SilverInstitute2020InterimPR.pdf
LETS GET PHYSICAL, PHYSICAL
Now it's important to understand that huge amounts of "silver" is traded on "paper" markets, and these markets have historically decided the approximate cost of physical silver in the world, in the form of the "spot price". I'm not going to give anyone a primer on how this works, go read about the London Fix and COMEX paper on your own time. But the important thing to know is that there are a bunch of silver bars in vaults in London and in the U.S., and electronic claims on them are traded on the LBMA and COMEX continuously, without the silver ever leaving the vaults. However, these vaults have concrete numbers of physical bars in them, and trading contracts against them technically means that you can show up at a window somewhere and demand your 5x 1000oz bars that a COMEX warrant entitle you to. This redemption happens all the time, and it can be used to extract physical silver from the unallocated storage at bullion vaults and release it to industrial or consumer bullion uses. However, these bars can also be moved into "registered" or "allocated" accounts without them leaving the overall vault storage. This means that a quantity of individual silver bars that an owner holds title to can be physically moved inside the vault onto a different rack, and the owner has individual serial numbers of bars that they own. These bars can be withdrawn on demand only by their owner and are not available for general redemption of a COMEX warrant. So how many bars are there? Well between LBMA and COMEX, there are 1480.3Mtoz sitting in vaults (sources below when I start doing math). This includes all allocated AND unallocated bars. Now, obviously London and NY are separated by an ocean, but people always like to bring up that bars could be moved b/w London <-> American COMEX vaults. This is an enormous undertaking, but let's make a "spherical chicken in a vaccuum" level assumption and say that LBMA + COMEX vaults are a singular source of inventory for both $SLV and other market participants. If you read the $SLV S-1 (which I did: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1330568/000119312505127244/ds1.htm) you would learn that the custodian of the $SLV trust is required to hold all silver weight (with an exception for 1100toz of unallocated, lol) that is owned by the trust in allocated accounts, where the individual bars are physically segregated inside the vaults, and the serial numbers of the owned bars are explicitly recorded. The idea that there is "no physical silver" backing the SLV trust and "you could get settled with cash" is ridiculous. iShares publishes a report listing every serial number of every bar that is owned by the trust, along with the total weight contained in the bars. It is 10847 pages long (you can read it here if you have trouble sleeping at night: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf) and is updated frequently. The underlying silver is owned by the trust. It cannot be removed from the trust unless "baskets" of 50000 shares are redeemed by an "Authorized Participant" which is only a few large brokers. It cannot be removed by the bullion vaults and given to other customers because it is physically segregated inside the vaults. People who have recently beaten down the idea of a silver squeeze love to talk about how JP Morgan is the custodian for the SLV trust. And because JPM just paid a $1B fine for historical manipulation of the paper silver market, they aren't going to be honest about this. This is crazy talk. When it comes to the dishonesty of a big bank, there is "fraud" and there is FRAUD. "Fraud" would be them saying "Oh sorry, we didn't realize that a laundromat bringing in $300k/week of dirty dollar bills was out of the ordinary". "Fraud" happens all the time, and the banks get away with it regularly. FRAUD would be them saying "Oh yes, 3rd party customer (iShares) who services dozens of other large banking institutions in the world, here is objective evidence, with serial numbers, that we have these silver bars in the vault" and then just making up the data. It is QANON-level crazy, IMHO, to think that JPM is going to commit FRAUD by publishing a list of serial numbers that is completely fake. I believe the exact opposite: since they have just gotten caught, they are playing it straight this time and have just switched sides in order to go long. On the COMEX alone, JP Morgan Chase is long 193.9Mtoz, or just north of $5B. (COMEX depository data by weight: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls) The problem for the futures and options markets is that their continual trading of paper contracts is chasing a smaller and smaller amount of physical silver that is not owned by $SLV. And the market participants (minus, now, JPM) who have gotten away with naked selling of paper contracts and mostly settling them for cash are going to soon find the underlying vaults empty and no metal to give to warrant holders who come looking for it.
HOW BIG OF A PROBLEM IS $SLV FOR THE NAKED SHORTS IN THE PAPER MARKET? LET'S DO SOME MATH.
$SLV inventory math: $SLV is holding 669,357,789.40 troy ounces in trust, and has 720,500,000 shares outstanding. (If you are curious why $SLV/share trades below the spot price, it's because: 669.4Mtoz / 720.5M shares = .929 toz / share) ($SLV data from here: https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239855/ishares-silver-trust-fund?qt=SLV#/ ) (screenshot from tonight for posterity: https://imgur.com/a/0sqcMFr) Bullion vault inventory math: London (LBMA) silver stocks are 1080.5Mtoz (http://www.lbma.org.uk/london-precious-metals-physical-holdings-statistics) US COMEX silver stocks are 399.8Mtoz (https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls) 669.4/(1080.5 + 399.8) = 45.2% of the vaulted silver in the world is already owned by SLV Subtracting what SLV already owns, leaves us with: (1080.5 + 399.8) - 669.4 = 810.9Mtoz (This is completely ignoring the fact that a lot of that remaining silver is owned in registered or allocated accounts by individual owners. E.g. there is 150.2Mtoz in "registered" on the COMEX which means those bars are already specifically deeded to an individual owner. But they could theoretically sell it to SLV so I included it as available.) 810.9Mtoz is the ABSOLUTE THEORETICAL MAXIMUM available in LBMA + COMEX silver that is not already owned by SLV. Now how short are the shorts? Some more math: OI on COMEX futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/silver-futures-and-options.html
in currently open interest that could be demanded for delivery. Just on the COMEX, there could be demand for twice as much silver as there is in the combined LBMA + COMEX vaults that is not explicitly owned by $SLV right now. Caveats:
I have not included any London futures contracts that may have claims on metal here. I am not versed in their contracts at all and don't have a good data source right now. If anyone knows how to calculate the short obligation for London I would be glad to add it.
I have not analyzed any of the strike prices on COMEX options or dates on COMEX futures...some of them could be way out of the money or way in the future. Many silver producers sell futures years in advance to lock in prices, and then deliver the physical to satisfy the contracts.
Using the same basic methodology–total shorts divided by shares [toz in this case] outstanding–as is used on a stock to calculate short interest (and gave us the infamous 140% short interest on GME) we get......drumroll please: 1563.9 short / 810.9 physical = 192.9% short interest. OPEN INTEREST ON COMEX SILVER FUTURES AND OPTIONS IS EQUIVALENT TO A 192.9% SHORT INTEREST AGAINST ALL LONDON AND U.S. AVAILABLE INVENTORY. But it gets even worse.
WANNA ADD A GAMMA SQUEEZE??
I pulled the data for all current OI in SLV options. There is a large number (5.7 million) of call contracts open (here are the totals: https://imgur.com/tiqPA34) Using the .929toz/share number, we can calculate that there are up to 527.2Mtoz that would have to be bought during an absolute runaway Gamma Squeeze. Call options on $SLV max out right now at $55, so the spot price would only have to increase by around 122% to reach the point that all of that weight would need to have been purchased. But at some point, it could become self-reinforcing, and the gamma squeeze continues to cause more gamma squeezing. I believe that this almost happened Sunday evening (2021-01-31) as evidenced by the huge premium that $SLV was trading to the futures price for a few minutes when trading opened. (My comparison chart: https://i.imgur.com/UPjL3zm.png) The Silver ETF that trades on Sunday in Tel Aviv (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TCHF82:IT) closed up >6% (and was consistenly rising for the entire session) before any american spot markets opened. I believe that hedging algorithms at MM firms that write options saw this spike as a need to buy shares in $SLV to cover their deltas, and so they bought the opening of $SLV like crazy. $SLV opened up 17.6%, while paper only opened up about 6%. Paper market players had to sell 23.8Mtoz of paper in the first minute of trading to keep the price under control. I have never seen an imbalance like this before, and it was covered up quickly (within 2 hours of trading). But to me, it sounds like Vincent's heartbeat monitor in GATTACA when he runs out of fake signal: there was a cover up required to hide this explosion. When the day comes that this cover up is not executed properly, stuff is going to get ugly, b/c $SLV won't just gamma squeeze like a normal stock...
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE! A TRADITIONAL GAMMA/SHORT SQUEEZE WILL SEEM LIKE NOTHING IN SILVER
The squeeze in silver will be FAR WORSE than the combination of a gamma and short squeeze in a stock, because shares of stock cannot be removed from the market. Eventually somebody holding $VW or $GME is going to say "sure, I'll sell at $42,000.69 per share" and that share can go back to cover a short. But if instead of doing that, the holder of that share withdrew it from the market by converting it to a physical token b/c they thought that the physical token would be more valuable than the share (the retail premium on physical silver vs. paper silver), the short interest would INCREASE as shares were converted into tokens. And since there are currently more "shares" of silver than there are bars of silver in the vault, the shorts can be caught with a literally illiquid market that has nothing to buy. Zero. Zilch. No silver available. The doomsday scenario (for paper silver holders and writers) is the following combination:
holders of COMEX warrants will see the rising premium of physical bullion to the spot price and decide to redeem their warrants for physical
a rising spot price will Gamma Squeeze the writers of $SLV options into buying more shares in a runaway fashion and the trust will absorb all available vault inventory as it issues new shares
COMEX warrant holders who try to demand metal that doesn't exist will literally break the market. The CBOE will probably step in and decide to force settle the contracts for cash at the last known good price, and COMEX paper warrants will cease trading forever. The physical market price will then be disconnected from the paper market, and $SLV as an exchange traded product will stand (mostly) alone as the new "paper" market for silver.
SO WTF DO I DO? [NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE]
Well I could always buy physical silver, if I can stomach the premium and wait 8 weeks for it to show up. Or, I could just get long on $SLV. Since I believe that $SLV will stand alone after the dust settles as the one true claim on bars in the vaults, I could be long the actual $SLV ticker in several ways:
Buying shares (duh, but it worked for $GME)
Buying long dated calls (Gamma Squeeze go BRRRRR, but who knows when)
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
I am in my early 30s, make $75k a year ($120k joint), live in the South, work as a Development Director, and hate capitalism but love a little luxury!
Edited to remove the tables because when I obsessively checked this post on my phone I couldn't read them?? Also I tried to, but was prevented from, editing the title. I know it looks sanctimonious but that's just one small part of my personality I swear. D: ❤️ Section 1: Assets and Debt Total Net Worth: $30,875 - all equity. Retirement Balance: $0 for me; $20,500 for my husband in the state pension program for teachers. (My partner, L, has been paying into the state teachers' pension system for 5 years. For most of my 20s, I either worked at very low-paying jobs, or supported myself and others on a teacher’s salary, so no retirement for me. My current job does not have a retirement program, but one of my goals for this year is to either start a Roth IRA or get a new job with a 401k match… or maybe both?) Savings Account Balance: $23,733 We’re moving this summer to a city closer to our families, and are saving all we can for a down payment on a dreamy spot. After we move, some amount of what’s left over will go into a retirement fund, and the rest will stay in this HYSA as our emergency fund. For us, three months of expenses, including childcare, is about $18,000. Checking Account Balance: $455 Credit Card Debt: n/a, pay off each month Student Loan Debt: $80,000 for L’s undergrad and MAT. $18,000 for my undergrad and (unfinished) MAT. (My undergrad degrees were mostly covered by the Pell Grant, scholarships, and a $10,000 529 from my parents. L was a nontraditional student - didn’t start undergrad until he was 24 - so none of his was covered. Most of my debt is for a MAT program I dropped out of after one year. I was trying to find any way out of teaching at the time (it is demanding, all-consuming, and carceral at once) and thought a PhD would be my only route. When I got my current job I promptly left the program and any dreams of a PhD behind.) Equity: $83,875 (This number is from an online equity calculator, and is for our house in a very popular neighborhood in a very popular city. Our outstanding debt on the house is $295,000. We put our whole savings down in 2019, which was $9,000 at the time.) ❤️ Section 2: Income Monthly Take Home: My base pay is $65,000, and L’s is $45,000. I worked a side gig last year that totaled about $10k in additional compensation; all of it went to savings so we don't budget for it. My take home is $4096/month for my full time job, and my current side gig income (grant writing) is variable, between $300 and $600 a month. L’s take home is $2262/month. My health insurance is paid in full by work. L’s insurance and B’s come out of L’s paycheck, as does L’s retirement contribution. Income Progression: I’ve been working since I was 15 years old, moved out for college at 18, and paid my own bills starting that year. I won’t include that money here though (it was like $12,000 a year as a college student, for reference). Income below starts when I graduated with two BAs that had nothing to do with teaching. Year 1: $15,600 (part time ABA therapist, full time baby anarchist) Year 2: $32,000 (year 1 teacher salary: I accepted a spot in Teach for America for this giant salary even though I thought it was an obnoxious neoliberal org. Yes, I was also obnoxious at the time.) Year 3: $33,000 (teacher, step increase) Year 4: $34,000 (teacher, step increase) Year 5: $35,000 (teacher, step increase) Year 6: $15,000 (community organizer; at the time this felt like a dream job) Year 7: $20,000 (community organizer & cafe worker) Year 8: $40,000 (back to teaching, felt rich; this includes a side hustle writing grants on the side for $50 an hour) Year 9: $45,000 (left teaching for my current job, quit the grants side hustle) Year 10: $55,000 (got a raise, got pregnant) Year 11: $65,000 (got a raise and promotion, had a baby) Year 12: $75,000 (was promoted again in January but waiting on the pay increase to hit, hopefully with backdating. This money diary doesn’t reflect this salary as it hasn’t been reflected in my check yet) ❤️ Section 3: Expenses Mortgage/PMI/Insurance: $2,110 Retirement Contribution: n/a (L’s retirement is pulled out of his check before he receives it: it’s $169 a month. Right now, I don’t have a retirement contribution) Savings Contribution: $1000 to main savings, $400 to sinking fund (This is a super aggressive goal for us and is only possible because our childcare costs are covered by work) Debt Payments: n/a right now (We have student loans to the tune of $100k but haven’t been paying a dime since they were paused due to COVID. But then the other day I checked and saw they've gained interest? Should we be paying them then? WWJD? I legit don’t know.) Electric: $130 Internet: $100 Cellphone: $65 (For L & I both. We are on a bigass family plan with 40 gajillion other people.) Subscriptions: $45 ($10 Spotify; $10 Youtube music; $2.99 Apple data (Why?!); $22 NYT (for newspaper and cooking app); also have a split subscription to the New Yorker with bestie F but we paid for a yearly deal.) Car Payment and Insurance: $150 for a car payment; $202 for insurance (Insurance covers both of our used cars and my dad’s used handicap van. Our car payment is for our used Honda. We only owe $6,850 on the car and I’m back and forth on whether to pay it off with savings) Medical/Therapy: $0 (My therapist is $140 a session, and I just started seeing her again once a month, but this is reimbursed by work. I also get an inhaler at least twice a month - that’s reimbursed too, costs $60 total.) Misfits Market: $120 (For a weekly box, which really helps us cut down on overall grocery cost) Gym membership: $30 (For my intense local yoga studio’s app which is so great in the winter. We also run and bike a lot, as long as it’s warm enough) Donations: $100 (We give monthly to our local Democratic Socialists of America; the Working Families Party; and a small, local org. I’m also on an organizing committee for that org. We’ll give them one big gift of at least $250 this year, probably in May. I support a couple organizations with grant writing and grant-finding support as much as I can, which usually amounts to a few hours a month.) Childcare: $0 B goes to a very precious Montessori preschool, and we can walk him there. It’s pricey af ($1300/month). The other $200 is to account for some babysitting from my little sister when L or I have to work weird hours. For now, work reimburses this full amount as a COVID perk; if that changes, we will have to cut costs significantly. House cleaner: $160 (They come twice a month and charge $80 each time.) ❤️ Section 4: Money Diary NOTE: We are masked and afraid everywhere we go. ✨DAY 1: THURSDAY✨ 4:20 am: Good morning world! I shuffle into the kitchen in my panties and my slippers to fill up the gooseneck kettle. I recently got into pour over coffee even though it’s quite a commitment. With a toddler, a full-time job, and a Libra sun, I don’t really have time for meditative morning routines. This lengthy, half-naked coffee regimen is my closest attempt. As soon as I get the coffee brewing, our 18 month old, B, starts making noise. I open the door and see he’s got his pacifier in his mouth and his pillow in his arms. He wants to lay with Dada. I help him get in the bed with my husband, L, as quietly as possible. Last week L was super sick and we thought for sure he had picked up COVID. Blessedly all of our tests came back negative, but on the heels of that, he started having major tooth pain and had to have an emergency tooth extraction, AND he got an ear infection as he was coming down from whatever virus he had. I hate it :( I get dressed and do some chores while they snooze to ease L's morning. I start the diaper laundry (usually his job - we use cloth), put away the dishes, start the Eufy vacuum, and get B and L’s breakfasts together: sunbutter and a little bit of syrup on some banana pancakes I prepped earlier this week. 6:30 am: B and L are up! The hour before we take B to preschool is kind of a marathon. L eats with B (and supervises his syrup consumption) as I clean out some more dirty diapers, brush my teeth, make another cup of coffee, strip our sheets, spray my hair with water to refresh the curl, return a few group texts, and wash some breakfast dishes. Somewhere in here I also eat two boiled eggs with Everything But the Bagel seasoning, and a bunch of grapes. I help L get B loaded up in the car, and just as they pull off, my parents Facetime me. They’re calling to see B but are polite enough to talk to me for a few minutes. They live a few hours away, and are divorced, but cohabitating. The full story is long and spiritual for me so I’ll spare you. Anyway, my mom and I talk for a while about this couch she thinks I should buy from one of her friends, but it’s two hours away and we’d have to rent a U-Haul, so I think we’ll pass. I do hate our current couch though. Please drop comfy toddler- and dog-friendly recommendations in the comments! 8:15 am: I set out to walk the dog and listen to the Daily’s recent update on the coronavirus. Donald G. McNeill, Jr., says we’re in this through the summer, which is a bummer on the personal and global front, but I suppose it could be worse??? Maybe?? As soon as they finish talking I switch over to You’re Wrong About. I’m deep in the Jessica Simpson series and highly recommend this pod for any other nerdy, lefty, kinda burnt out millennials, especially those of you that are queer or queer-adjacent. Once home, I take my whole operation onto the front porch to work, since the cleaner will be here soon and I don’t want to crowd her in this time of COVID. I LOVE a clean house and I love paying someone else to do the big stuff, which is a recent luxury for us. 11:00 am: I’ve been working steadily in my email and google docs for a couple hours now, and it’s COLD out here. The cleaner leaves and I am grateful to go back into the heat. I Venmo her $80 for the cleaning (included in monthly expenses). I take a break from work and check out the job boards. My current job is the best, and highest-paying, gig I’ve ever had, but I’m planning to leave some time this year for several reasons. The premier reason: I recently learned that I’m qualified for several positions that pay over $100k at similar organizations. With that kind of money we could pay off our student loans, help our families out more, make sizable donations, and L could explore a career outside of teaching without freaking about a slight cut in his pay for a few years as he finds his niche. Or - maybe he’ll get into Edtech somehow and we’ll join Resource Generation. Who knows. 12:30 pm: I have a quick break and pull together lunch: half a cheese quesadilla, a big bowl of Smitten Kitchen’s roasted tomato soup, and a LimonCello LaCroix. L is on his planning period and asks me to edit his most recent job application, and I oblige. Since we’re both job hunting, I ask him if I can buy a resume template and guide on Etsy. I have sworn off online shopping for the year to curb my impulse spending, but he says we’ll just count this one as his purchase. Great news because I hate the formatting of my resume from 2016 and don’t want to fix it myself! $9.95 3:30 pm: My Zooms are over, my inbox is at 0, and I put up my out of office message because I’m taking the day off tomorrow to work on my resume and do some things to prep our house for sale. My high-functioning anxiety created an ambitious backwards timeline for this process back in December, and that timeline currently runs my life. I work for a few more minutes to tie up loose ends, and then walk O to a nearby shop to buy my favorite candle, curbside-style. When I get there the owner gives me some percentage off because it’s slightly discolored from the sun. Huzzah! $27.25, marked down from $40 4:45 pm: My angel of a baby sister, J, who lives just a few blocks away and is in a pod with us, comes to hang out with B for an hour so L can rest. I head to my good friend D’s place for my investment overalls appointment. She's going to alter their awkward wide leg into more of a tapered, mom jean shape. I have a capsule wardrobe which means I’ll wear these babies at least once a week, and plus I get to pay my friend, so I’m fine with the extra expense. When I arrive, she and her partner have the fire pit going, and we drink a couple glasses of wine together, yet more than 6 feet apart. I learn they are planning to move to the same new city as us in the next couple of years and legit cry happy tears. Afterwards, I head out to pick up dinner for tonight. We are getting burgers from L’s favorite place as a treat. On my way, the WOLF MOON appears over the water and my stomach does triple flips. Then I pick up our dinner: a veggie burger with eggplant jam and kale for me; a real-meat burger with mushrooms, bacon, swiss, carmelized onion, and horseradish mayo for L; and an appetizer plate with pretzels, pimento cheese, onion jam, pickles, and chips for B. Delicious and unhealthy. The total is $34.54. 6:30: Home and eating dinner. B loves his meal, especially the “chokes.” He calls pretzels “chokes” because when L first started feeding them to him, I worried aloud that he would choke every time. I just couldn’t stop thinking about how a pretzel almost took out George W. Bush. Turns out our toddler is better at chewing than George W. Bush. After dinner, L gives B a bubble bath while I do my own, very minimal, bedtime routine. Then L and I lay down with B to put him to sleep. He has a floor bed, which is a Montessori thing I learned about on mom blogs. L is a very hot and talented woodworker, so he took my floor bed dream to the next level by building a lovely house-shaped frame. The top beam is wrapped in twinkle lights and fake ivy. It’s a nice place to sleep, and we pass out here all the time. 10:30 pm: L wakes me up and we wander to our own bed. 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 71.74 ✨ DAY 2: FRIDAY✨ 4:15 am: Wake up and go look at the clock. Decide this is a silly time to get up on a day off, drink some water, and go lay back down. But once in bed all I can think about is how much I want to read the news, organize my resume, and update this money diary. This is the problem with falling asleep at toddler time. So I get up again at 4:45, make my coffee, read a New Yorker article about Biden’s pandemic response on my phone, and sit down to work on this diary. 6:00 am: L wakes up! He works on breakfast for himself and B and I start meal planning for the month. This is one of my best and most recent life hacks. I found that if I chart out our cooking, weekly takeout, and leftovers at the start of the month, we save lots of money and are so much less stressed about the labor that goes into feeding ourselves. I pull out Smitten Kitchen Every Day and use it to inspire the month’s meals. So quaint to cook from an actual BOOK. 6:45 am: B walks out of our room and announces that he drank my water off the side table. He’s so proud! And so ready to eat. While he eats breakfast, I snack on some grapes and, at B’s request, blast 7 Days A Week by They Might Be Giants. This is the consummate children’s song for any household that dreams of a self-determined world. Over the next hour I take B to school; make myself a real breakfast (a soy chorizo and egg taco); and browse TikTok. Eventually I find a series about this Gamestop situation by a smart Irish woman and L and I watch it together. When it’s over we feel like shrewd stock brokers ready to win money, and L gets to work teaching virtually. I spend the morning painting our front door and our kitchen wall to prep our house to sell, and talking to my (other) little sister on the phone. She’s an HR person with a job that’s taken her far away from our family, and we don’t talk that often. It is so good to catch up on her life. After that I have a fun, day-off Zoom call with longtime bestie and coworker K. We drink coffee and talk about The Future. 12:30 pm: I make lunch (tomato soup with goat cheese on top, and a savory scone on the side) and get a text from another bestie, M, who offers me a little grant writing contract work this week. Yay! I love them and love working with them. Next, I order our groceries for the week. I get baking powder, eggs, cremini mushrooms, vegan sausage patties, oat milk, ginger root, shredded cheddar cheese, plantains, black beans, doggy bags, broccoli, vegan chicken strips, artichoke hearts, roasted red peppers, capers, ciabatta bread, grits, bananas, avocados, greek yogurt, and on impulse, a pineapple on sale (?!). Maybe B will love it. The total comes to $94.08. 1:15 pm: I do a brief power vinyasa class in B’s room and take a shower. It takes me approximately two Drake songs to shower and dry off, as I don’t have to wash my hair today and I never shave. I work on my resume until L and I leave to pick up B. On the way home we stop at the park to play, and then we all get in the car to pick up groceries. 6:30 pm: We get home later than planned and eat together: leftover tofu ramen for us and veggie lasagna for B, who is so sleepy that he hardly touches his lasagna. L gets him in the bath around 7:15 and I run through my evening routine. There’s a lot going on in the house - preschool lunch and clothes to put up, a mountain of laundry in our room, all of the groceries for the week waiting to be put away, and dinner dishes are languishing in the sink. L starts on chores while I get B dressed. As I’m dressing B, my mom Facetimes and B shows her several of his board books. While we’re talking my dad texts me a heart emoji - he overheard B and my mom talking from his room. He lives with a disability and a painful illness, so he goes to bed very early. We hang up with my mom and record a video of B making “P” sounds and saying “I love you” to my dad, and send it over. This is the first time B’s ever said “I love you!” Huge news. We read books and fall asleep next to B. 9 pm: I wake up and nudge L but he wants to keep sleeping. I go clean the dinner dishes, put away the food and reorganize the cabinets and fridge, and mop the kitchen floor while I listen to The Daily’s latest reporting on QAnon believers who are at once totally bananagrams and also remind me very much of my aunt. L wakes up at 9:30 because he and Y, my sister’s boyfriend, are gonna game. Cute! He finishes the laundry and I fold a few diapers to help out. Then we lay in bed together until game time, when I fall asleep. 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 94.08 ✨DAY 3: SATURDAY✨ 5:40 am: Wake up at a ~*~weekend hour~*~!! Start my kettle, clean and moisturize my face, pull out the ingredients for waffles, and pick up around the house while I wait for it to boil. I try to read some, but get bored a few pages in. I’m currently readingHow to Do Nothing and it’s good enough, but I think I need to chill on the nonfiction and read, like, saucy romance novels with hot bisexual leads. Send me your recs please! Waffle time! This recipe is my go-to. I recommend whipping the egg whites first. B wakes up around 7:15 and helps me cook which is cute and very messy. He eats his waffle with honey, peanut butter, and grapes. L wakes up after him - he had a late night gaming! 8 am: I open yesterday’s mail and find an anti-abortion DVD from L’s grandma. It’s Abby Johnson’s “memoir.” Abby Johnson is an opportunistic right winger and documented liar who once moonlighted as a Planned Parenthood clinic manager. L is a preacher’s kid, so we’re not surprised to receive this from his grandma. For example: 10 years ago, when L and I were a couple years into our relationship, her Christmas gift to me was a book about how one can recover from being a slut by getting married and finding Jesus. This particular package really sends me over the edge, though. I decide to write them a short note later that states my own experience with abortion and sets a clear boundary on this kind of propaganda, and includes an article about Abby Johnson’s bullshit life. It’s unlikely this will change their minds - they are septuagenarian Southern Baptists, after all - but at least I’ll be in my integrity. In the meantime, I group text L’s siblings, and they commiserate with us. His one sibling who is transitioning shares that grandma recently sent them a book about how to tell your gay friends they’re sinning. We agree that’s hilariously dense (and fucking rude) of her, and talk about how everyone under forty is a gay slut living their best life, so really it’s grandma’s loss. During this time I clean the kitchen, finish the waffles, and freeze them for B’s weekday breakfasts. 9:30 am: B asks to use the potty and does a great job peeing on his own! He’s geeked about it and is especially excited to have my parents on Facetime cheering him on. After that we head out on our morning walk. L takes B to the playground and I take O to the dog park nearby. She gets tired pretty quick and we all head to the thrift store. We need chairs for our hand-me-down kitchen table. The ones that came with it are awkwardly wide. L spots two sturdy ones that are just $5 each. Score! $10 11:30 am: B and L are both wiped out once we get home. They eat lunch and go to sleep. I clean up the kitchen, repot one of my plants, water our porch plants, and eat some leftover ramen for lunch. The Marie Antoinette episode of You’re Wrong About keeps me company all the while. 10/10 would recommend. 2 pm: B wakes up and eats some lunch. We watercolor together for a while (he on his big paper, I in my bullet journal), then walk down the street to the local high school while L preps potatoes for our fondue. The high school grounds are open on the weekends, and there’s an amphitheatre on site. B loves the echo in there. 4:30 pm: L joins us in the amphitheatre and together we drag B two blocks back home. I prep the fondue: brie, gouda, and more gouda with white wine. It ends up being a little clumpy but so delicious. My sister, J, and her boyfriend, Y arrive while I’m cooking. Y brings yummy baguettes from his bakery job for the dipping and we prep broccoli, green beans, and tempeh too. We sit down in our new chairs to eat and for the zillionth time I am so thankful we’ve been able to make a pod together this year. Fondue would be a terrifying proposition with anyone else, really. While we eat, Y tells us he put in his two weeks at the bakery because their COVID protocols aren’t so tight and his coworkers are continuing to go to bars and out to eat. His plan for now is to get back on unemployment and find a virtual job sometime soon. Both he and my sister have worked food service their whole adult lives so the pandemic has been tough on them. Besides the fact that they’re delightful and perfect, this is one key reason we’re planning to move with them to our new city this summer: L and I will be able to easily afford the majority of the rent, deposits, and utilities on a pretty big, and centrally located, house. Living together will allow us to grow our savings and take our time looking for a Forever Home, and will allow J and Y to pay really low rent as my sister goes back to school full time and Y looks for a full-time job. I’m really looking forward to living with them and know it’ll be good for B, too. They leave around 7 pm and we put B to bed, this time without falling asleep ourselves! 8:30 pm: Turn on How I Met Your Mother in bed and the episodes are baaaaad bad. One entire episode casts sex workers as a punch line. Ick. L and I agree to find a new show, and fall asleep around 10. 11 pm - 2 am: B is up and between our two beds. Wahhhh. 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 10 ✨DAY 4: SUNDAY✨ 6 am: Up and at ‘em! Discover I’m out of my fancy coffee and don’t want to emphasize the flavor of our grocery store beans with a slow pour, so make a french press instead. B wakes up too early so we watch toddlers together on TikTok while I drink my coffee, then read books while L makes us all eggs for breakfast. We head out for our morning walk around 9 am and stop at a coffee shop a few blocks away. I pick up Counter Culture’s Iridescent beans, buy an espresso brownie on a whim, and tip the cashier because she’s so sweet and tipping is good. The total is 23.03. L takes B to the playground and I drop my purchases and O back at the house before I head out for a run. 9:45 am: It’s 65 degrees and my run is glorious. I run to the water and pause Lil Yachty for a minute to take it all in. Once home I shower and put on a black LA Apparel catsuit and a marled black and white cocoon sweater from AA of the past (I like what I like!). We feed B lunch and then L puts him down while I clean up. Around 11:30, J comes over after to watch B while we remove the storm windows from our whole house and clean the windows underneath as part of our work to prep the house for sale. We’re a solid team: L removes the storm windows and caulks all the gaps in the wood while I follow behind him and wash the windows inside and out. Our sweet neighbor catches us cleaning and offers to let us use her power washer for free next weekend to clean up the front of the house. I resolve to bake them some cookies. 2:30 pm: We are done with the window operation and it’s time for me to water all 57 plants in the house. Along the way, discover that I overwatered B’s hoya last week and it’s rotting. Noooo! I unpot it on the porch to dry the roots, but it’s raining so this might not work. There’s only one surefire solution: buy a replacement plant! I try to convince L we should go to the nursery, but he’s not so into it. I walk around dejectedly with a towel to clean up all the water I spilled, and Zelle J $70 for babysitting even though she insists she would do it for free. Next B, L, and I share a snack: crackers with goat cheese and harissa. Mmm. B skips the harissa but loves the goat cheese. Meanwhile I begin to stress about making dinner. We’d planned goddess bowls but L and I just aren’t feeling it after our marathon of house work. L requests Chinese and is suddenly more amenable to visiting the nursery, which is near our favorite Chinese takeout spot. Score! 5:00 pm: We leave the plant shop with a heartleaf philodendron for B’s room and a giant, lovely, perfect monstera deliciosa just because. The total comes to $53.24. Then we pick up our food: $33.08 including the tip. L ordered a large veggie lo mein to share with B and General Tso’s chicken, and I got family style tofu and vegetables. We start B’s bedtime routine at 6:30 and he’s out by 7:00 - early for him! After he’s down, L preps his breakfast sandwiches for the week and I do some dishes. Then we take mutual advantage of the extra hour we have together. Even after 12 years it’s always so good with L. I fall asleep around 10 pm feeling blessed. 🌿 Daily total: 179.32 ✨DAY 5: MONDAY✨ 5 am: I make my pour over and get started on work first thing. I have a couple of deadlines this week and the side gig to balance so I’m already feeling pressed for time! I wrap up an entire grant report before 6 am and feel very accomplished. Then I pause work to start our breakfast, which is all pre-prepped, hallelujah. While L and B eat breakfast, I get dressed in a black turtleneck minidress, busted old tights, black ankle socks, and my Doc Martens. I help L load up the car with B and all his gear, and tell L to be careful. Today is L’s first day back teaching in person since December, and we’re both nervous since COVID is still running wild in our red state. On the way to work he fills up his car for $18.33. 2:30 pm: After another grant report, seventy gajillion emails, forty Slack messages, and several hours of Zoom calls, I’m ready for a break. I finish eating the quinoa salad I prepped during Zoom call #2 and then eat a pear too. I see our Misfits box has been delivered. It’s $30 a week, and is included in our monthly expenses. I unpack it, clean the counters, wipe down the bathroom sinks, take O for a walk, and sit down to work on my side gig grant report, which is due Wednesday. I set a 30 minute timer because I don’t want to be too late picking up B. 4:25 pm: Worked longer than I meant to! Pack some snacks and pick up B. On the way home we get a giant bag of potting soil so I can repot those plants. It’s $18.52. Come home and engage in B’s favorite winter activity: pressing all the buttons in the turned-off car. Meanwhile, in another car across town, L picks up a big bag of Purina One, butter, maple syrup, and applesauce. That total is $28.64. 5:30 pm: The whole family is home and we kick it inside until it starts to get dark. L and I gather all the things and take the creatures out for a walk even though there’s a light, but very cold, rain happening. B is cranky and so are we, so the walk is quick. We eat leftover Chinese food around 7 and start B’s bedtime routine. B falls asleep at 8 and I update this diary for a while, then go watch Ted Lasso in bed with L til about 9:30. It’s much better than How I Met Your Mother, for the record. 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 65.51 ✨Day 6: TUESDAY✨ 3 am: B wakes up and needs a diaper change. I have the hardest time falling back asleep after: I can’t stop thinking about how I left B’s hoya out in the cold with its roots exposed most of the day yesterday and into tonight. But it’s too cold for me to get up again and pull it inside! So instead I toss and turn and hope it’s not dead yet. 6 am: L’s alarm wakes me up! No early morning reading and writing time for me. I get right up, make a giant pour over, and get breakfast together while L wakes up B. Then I actually sit down with them to eat: B and I both eat boiled eggs with everything but the bagel seasoning and some coconut milk yogurt, and L sips his coffee while his breakfast sandwich heats in the oven. I get dressed in my workout gear and walk the dog while L gets B ready for school. They leave, and I finally bring the hoya in, and start work, around 7:30. L buys coffee and snacks from the gas station on his way to work: $6.88. 9:30 am: I grab some crackers and peanut butter from the kitchen and notice a DMV bill on the fridge I’ve been meaning to pay, but don’t totally understand. I call them up and respond to emails while I sit on hold. Turns out I owe the DMV $10 for paying my Dad’s van insurance late. With the “processing fee” it comes to $11.17. 1:30 pm: Been on Zoom calls all morning, and decide to switch over to the side gig work for a bit. Meanwhile I eat that quinoa salad I prepped yesterday. At 2 pm, my longtime bestie and neighbor F comes over and we take O for a walk in the park together and have such a good conversation. While the context is (very) different, I’m reminded of the Toni Morrison quote when I think of F: “She’s a friend of my mind.” Such a gem, and such a smartie. At 3:30 I start a HIIT yoga class and it kicks my butt even though it’s only 20 minutes long. Afterwards, I shower and pick up B. 5:00 pm: L arrives home while B and I are playing, and we get in the car once more to check out a cute couch L scoped out on Facebook marketplace. It’s a sweet vintage brown velvet actually-for-real midcentury situation. Unfortunately we discover it’s also small and very uncomfortable. $200 not spent. Once home, my family goes for a walk and I make dinner - this grits and beans recipe from NYT cooking. It’s blessedly quick to pull together. Meanwhile D texts me and says my overalls are ready! YAY! She’s gonna drop them off in a couple of days. She says the total is $30. I include a tip and Venmo her $40. 7:00 pm: At bedtime, B cannot get enough of his books and we read All The World several times. He finally falls asleep around 8:20 and L and I eat dinner on the couch, with Ted Lasso. I drink a glass of red wine, which is a mistake: my anxiety spikes right after, my stomach hurts, and I can’t sleep. This is very upsetting as I want very much to be a wine mom. Does this happen to anyone else? 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 58.05 ✨DAY 7: WEDNESDAY✨ 5:45 am: Wake up with B cuddled into my back - L moved him to our bed in the middle of the night after his second wake up. Get my coffee and breakfast together and sit down at my computer to work on the side gig grant while everyone's asleep. Then L and I manage the morning rush together. I eat sourdough toast, two scrambled eggs, and some pineapple along the way. 7:30 am: Take O out for a walk and on a whim decide to listen to one of my favorite easy-listening pods: A Beautiful Mess. Normally the two sisters and co-hosts, Elsie and Emma, chat about things like home decor or craft making or how to balance kids and work. This episode is about the host’s evangelical upbringing, though, and is a real raw and honest tear jerker. Pair it with this, one of my top reads of 2020: “What Does the White Evangelical Want?” It gets me thinking about L’s upbringing in the church. He and all his siblings are all agnostic now. Finally sit down at my desk and debate taking Adderall. I used it regularly in college and for a few years after in order to Do All The Things. I try to stay away from it now - I’m not trying to live an impossible life any more - but I also really want to pick B up earlier than normal today, and that means I need to meet all my deadlines and make it through two Zoom calls with my direct reports by 3 pm. I decide to take 4 mg. Right after I take it, three different friends text me at once and then, suddenly, I’ve spent an hour catching up via text. Get to work for real around 9 am. 3:00 pm: Wrapped all my calls, answered all my emails, washed all the dishes, ate some lunch, and finished the side gig work! OK Adderall, you beautiful bitch. Spend a few more minutes tying up loose ends and then gather my things to pick B up from school. The plan today is to go “play basketball” in the park near his school because he is OBSESSED with balls, and I’m trying to do more magical things every day with him. It’s cold but I’m ready to brave it on his precious, curly-headed behalf. At 4 pm J calls and asks to go pick him up with me. Hooray, things just got even more magical! We head to a different-than-usual park together and run around until B sits in, and then drinks from, a puddle. We panic and J googles “What happens if my baby drinks from a puddle?” The search returns lots of stories of babies eating muddy rocks and surviving, so we decide it’s ok. 5:00 pm Head home and L is back from work! We take the smols on a walk and I tell L that I think nighttime screentime is making me anxious. I’m a sensitive creature and I really don’t want to blame the wine. He’s very perfect so he helps me think through an alternate plan for this evening: hot tea and book reading in bed, and maybe sex, too! Fun. Next, I head home with O to pot the plants we bought the other day, and L takes B to the playground. They get back around 6:30 and I am very excited to reveal my new plant placements. Everyone feigns interest except O. Then we eat leftovers together and B gets in bed around 7:30. L and I promptly fall asleep next to him and don’t wake up again til 11 pm. Guess our new nighttime routine will have to wait til tomorrow! 🌿 DAILY TOTAL: 0 ❤️ Section 5: TOTALS Total Expenses:$478.71 Food & Drink: $220.25 Fun & Entertainment: $0 Home & Health: $109.01 Clothes & Beauty: $40 Transport: $29.50 Other: $79.95 ❤️ Section 6: REFLECTION This week reflects a new normal for us, I think! We just set the goal of saving up for another down payment in December, and that’s when I swore off online shopping both to save money and to stop lining the pockets of evil billionaires like Bezos (no shade to anyone who uses Amazon, this is purely a personal goal & I’m not sure I can meet it). This self-imposed rule is helping me reign in my discretionary spending overall. L and I have only been living a two-income, middle class life for a few years, and my lifestyle creep was a little out of control in 2020. That said, I can and do still regularly justify spending money on things that make life more luxurious and beautiful - like a $40 candle or a totally unnecessary but very lovely plant. There are a couple of things not reflected in this diary that we regularly spend on: gifts (my achilles heel - for example, we spent three! thousand! dollars! on Christmas gifts in December), and medical bills. Both B and I had to visit the emergency room in 2020 and we are still getting random bills in the mail as our insurance company and the hospital duke it out. As I was editing this diary on Thursday, I received one for $787. Wahhhh. I think I’m gonna get on a payment plan, but even so that it will be over $200 a month. Last thought: this process got me thinking in some detail about the contradiction of organizing for the fall of capitalism (and the rise of a more gentle and just economic system), yet believing everyone - including ourselves and our own families - deserve to live full and abundant lives. This means I compromise my own anti-capitalist values and beliefs every day, in big and small ways. Discuss?
Why Index Funds are Not as Safe and Bubbles are Not as Destructive as You Might Believe
According to Morningstar research in the middle of 2019 almost half of all US stocks were part of some passive index fund. This number almost doubled since 2009. In the meantime, active management is on a steady decline, especially active managed funds. Around the same time Dr. Michael Burry compared index funds to CDOs. Let’s look into this case and try to draw something from it for our benefit. 1. How come index funds are compared to CDOs if they only track industries or sectors of economy? What we often miss is that the index fund, instead of being a neutral observer, is an active participant in the fundamentals of the companies that compose a particular index. The fund does so by providing capital and influencing market value of a security (this also opens a window of opportunities for the company behind the ticker to raise capital via bank loans or private investments). What’s so bad about this? Well, passive funds don’t go through balance sheets, there is no fair value assessment, no analysis and no risk taking. They just buy whatever company is big enough to make it into the index. This company can then use provided capital to stay afloat or influence it’s price by share buybacks, dividends or simply pay huge bonuses to it’s management. Just like banks didn’t care about subprime mortgages that were packed into CDOs, index funds managers don’t care about what exactly goes into their ‘soup’. With the banks it was just greed and ignorance – in case of index funds it’s by design. When there is a stable influx of new capital into passive funds, zombie companies are dragged higher and higher. WSB goddess Cathie Wood called this the greatest misallocation of funds in the history. But why is so much cash flowing into index funds? Is it a trend? Is someone incentivized to promote them? Well, yes, but the main reason is different: boomer psychology and our friend, the FED. See, boomers have massive capitals. All those pension funds, retiring firefighters, trust babies, capital heirs – they all seek safety. They don’t try to get 500% returns YOY or lose it all. They are very content with just beating inflation. Throw few percents above inflation and they will be over the moon. For a long time their favorite asset class were treasuries. 2. What is happening to the bond market? In 2016 US bond market was almost $40 trillion in value, compared to less than $20 trillion for the domestic stock market. Now, I haven’t seen yet the data about the size of US bond market of 2020, but everything points that it’s ratio to stock market is deteriorating. The US 10-year government-bond yield fell from nearly 2.00% at the beginning of the year to an all-time low of just 0.31% in early March. That’s what Rick Rule called ‘return free risk’, since allocating capital into these treasuries almost guarantees you to lose money to inflation. https://preview.redd.it/q6r2fhqfu6961.png?width=1372&format=png&auto=webp&s=b72fad038a47ee1a0adca587881f46bafc25cc89 Look at what is happening in Europe: “The ECB, which added 500 billion euros ($606 billion) to its pandemic bond buying program, is set to own around 43% of Germany’s sovereign bond market by the end of next year and around two-fifths of Italian notes, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s up from around 30% and 25% respectively at the end of 2019... Trading volumes in bund futures have collapsed 62% since the ECB started buying bonds, according to Axa, while ranges the lifeblood of traders have nosedived across Europe. In both the safest and riskiest nations, this quarter’s spread between the highest and lowest yields is the tightest it’s been since at least the global financial crisis.” The FED is doing quite the same. Buying bonds (including corporate) all over the place and lowering interest rates to the ground. What’s even more devastating for boomers is that there’s no hope on the horizon: the FED promises to keep interest rates low for the next few years. We are really heading towards Japan situation where the central bank is that fat ugly bully kid playing all by himself in the sandbox. 3. Where to go if the bonds are not so hot? This all causes big money to chase the next best thing. What do people consider safe? Real Estate. And indeed it rose: according to Knight Frank Global House price index US housing prices rose 7% from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020. But that’s a lot of hustle for big money. And that is hardly a passive income, rather a career. So the next best thing is index funds. What can be better than tracking the whole US economy? Never bet against America, am I right? Even if we stumble upon a market crash sending S&P down – the economy will recover, it always does, right? The influx of cash into ETFs is basically a self fulfilling prophecy: it drives prices up and those yearly returns get even more lucrative compared to sexy 0.31% provided by treasuries. The data shows that 2019-2020 saw again a spike in passive management allocation, but I couldn't find more up to date graph Even worse is that actively managed funds and bank investments start to, basically, replicate index funds. That is due to the risk/reward factor: if the funds outperform the market - they get some good rep and few new customers; but when they underperform the market – they get absolutely obliterated. Only few outsiders can risk picking deep value stocks or plays, that are not common portfolio dwellers. Or it takes someone with huge authority like Warren Buffett or Howard Marks. 4. Bubbles everywhere Now, at this point you might be on the edge of your seat, banging your fist and thinking that this is nothing but a bubble and the boomers, index funds and the FED are to blame. Well, it is. Hard truth is that fundamentals in the long run always kick-in. So-called Buffett indicator (total stocks market cap to GDP) is almost at a record high. And on top of that we have Dot.com bubble 2.0 with crazy tech enthusiasm. And a second real estate bubble too. But I urge you to notice, that bubbles are not all the same with the same outcome. Well, they all go burst, but that’s not the point. There are bubbles that I would call ‘General Market Heat’ - situations when too much money goes into the market, causing it to overheat. Then some sort of event, panic, fear, or rumor, not necessary caused by declining fundamentals, sends the market to downward spiral. As an example: panic of 1857, 1929, 1987, etc. The better the fundamentals were and the least the government gets involved – the faster it rebounds. Those bubbles do nothing but attract more speculators and their only result is the number of bankruptcies. Then there are bubbles that I would call ‘Thematic Bubbles’ - those are dedicated to some specific industry or a number of particular stocks that are expected to grow enormously. Tulip Mania in Netherlands (1637), Railway Mania in UK (1840s), Video Games Crash of 1983, Dot Com Bubble (2000). They all chased some particular novelty and all landed on their faces. But doing so they provided huge capital to developing industries. Dot Com Bubble gave us rapid growth of internet usage. Video Games chase of the late 70s and early 80s gave us the golden age of arcade gaming and huge inventions in graphics and game tech. Railway Mania left Britain with the largest system of railroads in the world. And guess who is the biggest exporter of tulips and holds 49 % of the global flower market? Yep, Netherlands, to this day, almost 400 years since the mania! This did not in any way benefit the majority of investors who went down with the bubble. But you can view this as a sacrifice of dumb and greedy people for the benefit of the progress. I get a sense of pride in this noble cause, as a member of WSB community. Back to boomers and index funds. By pouring money into index funds they provide capital both to disruptive industries and to zombie companies. The good thing is that the tech gets the majority of it, since it has the biggest share. Just look at the SPY top 6 holdings: https://preview.redd.it/ien160wku6961.png?width=361&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4fb8528478110ff0f2d5f9e1a793d7b5e5a9085 It’s genuinely good that companies like Tesla will get allocation of billions and billions which they (frankly) do not quite deserve at current fundamentals. This will accelerate their growth. The bad thing is that such allocations cement big tech monopolies, damaging competition. And it also provides liquidity to zombie companies big enough to make it into indexes. Difference is that innovative companies use this cash to reinvest into future growth. That’s exactly why their P/E ratios are so bad. Zombies spend cash on buybacks and management bonuses. Because of how all these companies are tied together in index funds and due to the nature of modern margin calls – once any segment of the stock market falls, there will be a massive dip. Tech can drown any industry stocks with them and vice versa. But the Tech will be able to cut investments, R&D and expansions and become profitable, while zombies with a big debt will go bankrupt. Either way it’s investors, who will bear the pain. 5. What shall we draw from here:
There are huge inflows into the stock market. And the blame is not so much on the kids with RH as it is on the boomers and ‘smart money’ chasing index funds;
If you want to short any of the bubbles as a hedge – do not short the most growing and volatile sectors and ETFs like QQQ, because they benefit from the current market in a long run. And also the premiums are huge due to IV. Rather short slow and steady industries, because they will get nuked just as much in case of a crash, but the premiums you pay now will be much lower;
Passive index funds investing makes ‘price discovery’ and a search for deep value so much more challenging. But not impossible. Basically, Peter Lynch’s advise to look for companies with smaller institutional ownership still lives up today. Does this mean that prices can’t be good or go up under big index allocation? Hell no. But the chance to find a ten-bagger declines.As an anecdote: look into our champion’s GME institutional ownership: on Jan 31 2020 it was 96.6 % and declined to relatively low 66.7 by Sep 30. Exactly before it doubled in the next 3 months;
Some bubbles provide needed capital to developing and hyped industries causing structural change. Unfortunately, it is paid by investors who rarely see any return;
FED is to blame for everything (as always);
WSBers will lose money either way (as always).
TL;DR: The bond market is similar to boomers wives: sexy in the 80s, not so much today. Constant intrusions by their relatives (the FED) into their relationships makes things even worse. That sends boomers chasing young girls - the stocks. But their dongles aren’t so active anymore, so boomers prefer passive approach, using a dating app - index funds. Unfortunately, there are only so many hot girls among young ladies on the app. This leads to ugly ones receiving attention and money from boomers, which they otherwise wouldn’t deserve. Some of those ladies spend money wisely and will be good to go once the boomer dies out. Others immediately waste it on shopping. Now, if a young man wants to find a truly beautiful lady with reasonable expectations – he has a better chance searching outside of the boomer dating app. Obligatory pictograph of a rocket for those of us who are not yet fully developed for an alphabet 🚀 🚀 🚀
1st, apologies for being AFK recently. 2nd, thank you to FatAmericanFuck for gathering info into a neat organized comment while I was gone :) Tester has been added, germination complete, added a mini description for cosmic revival, check below.
Added new userflairs :)
DROP IS OVER, CHECKOUT SEEDBANKS BELOW FOR HALLOWEEN LEFTOVERS
STAY CALM AND PLEASE BE PATIENT WITH THIS DROP!
NEW EMAIL FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE, OWLENTINES AT GMAIL DOT COM
DONT FORGET DAZ IS NOW ON THE EAST COAST, NO MORE CENTRAL TIME DROPS.
Valentine's Drop 2/12 at 12:01am Eastern Standard Time
Valentine's Drop
Hey guys, Daz here! I'm sure most of you are aware that things have been delayed with the licensing process at my new spot, resulting in delays in the release of my new photo x auto projects. Well, I hope this makes it up to you! I've dug deep to try and bring a little bit of what everyone has asked for to the table for this Valentine's weekend drop! Collabs with Ronin, Full Duplex/Mandalorian, and a Premium exclusive collab with Binary Selections (Ronin and Magic's line of shared work)!!! I've brought out the last of the Space Station Orange v.1, the last of the Squanch Stomper, the last of the Shekinah, and the last of the Cheech Biggums. I'm introducing a new CBD cross, Cosmic Revival, and releasing the last of the F3 Legacy Regs of both Wizard's Apprentice and Zamadelica Express (*pending current germination testing)... Not only that, every order will receive Seedopoly game pieces, brand new Night Owl plant ID stakes, Night Owl jar and jar lid label stickers, Valentine's day sticker set, and Valentine's day keychain (keychains may run out, all goodies are while supplies last) as well as the usual slaps you know and love! On top of that, if you grab 3 Secret Owl Society packs you'll receive a Secret Owl Society patch. If you order 4 Secret Owl Society packs you will receive the patch and a new glow in the dark Masked Owl ashtray! I'm also working on having the new black on black shirts in time for the drop, but as is life, all of this could change at any given moment. If you made it this far and are still reading, thank you. This drop is the last of my stock, and the next drop will not be until, realistically, July. If you need any Night Owl after this drop please go support the seedbanks that support me, and also show some love to the other auto breeders that are doing real work. I appreciate the continued love and cannot wait to continue on this journey with you.
Every order will come with Valentine's pin, keychain, and sticker combo, lid and jar stickers, nightowl limited or secret owl society stickers, and night owl plant ID stakes. The Collaboration drops will include everything above and come with their own corresponding stickers. For every pack ordered, earn 5 plant stakes. If you order 3 packs of secret owl society to earn a SOS patch. *USA ONLY\* Order 4 packs of secret owl society and you'll get the patch and a glow in the dark night owl ashtray too. Spend $250 total value from order(s) to earn a tester pack, Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen. *USA ONLY\* All premium packs come with 2 seedopoly scratch off cards per pack, all regular packs come with 1 scratch off per pack. The new secret owl society packaging will go out with this drop. And please be patient with this drop, there are so many moving parts, it's gonna be hectic! The crew is coming out to help, but still...
Premium Drop 2/10
Bubblegum Queen- Hubbabubba Haze x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cosmic Revival- Little Giant CBD x Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Heartbreaker- (White Triangle x White Stomper) X Wizard's Apprentice, my second collab with Ronin
Mambo Sauce- Mango Smile x Wizard's Apprentice -SOS Pack
Purple Pope- Anvil x Wizard's Apprentice, my first collab with Full-Duplex aka Mandalorian Genetics
StarFox- Foxy Purps x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Exclusive to Premium Members:
Cosmic Queen F4 S1- Super Sativa pheno- Daz' personal stash, the same one used in Karmic Connection, Mango Sunrise, SSO v.2, and Shekinah -40 packs or less :)
Funk Potion- Funkadelic x Wizard's Apprentice, Collab with Binary Selections (Ronin and Magic's combined forces)
Tester pack If you spent a total of $250
Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen
Valentine's Drop 2/12
Bubblegum Queen- Hubbabubba Haze x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cosmic Revival- Little Giant CBD x Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Heartbreaker- (White Triangle x White Stomper) X Wizard's Apprentice, Second collab with Ronin
Mambo Sauce- Mango Smile x Wizard's Apprentice -SOS Pack
Purple Pope- Anvil x Wizard's Apprentice, First collab with Full-Duplex aka Mandalorian Genetics
StarFox- Foxy Purps x Cosmic Queen, previously released as a tester -SOS Pack
Cheech Biggums- Wizard's Apprentice x Tyrone Stomper
Galaxy Brain- Zamaldelica Express x Cosmic Queen
Karmic Connection- (Chem City Blues x Chemdogging) X Cosmic Queen -SOS Pack
Mango Isle- Mango Smile x Zamaldelica Express -SOS Pack
Oh Geeze!- 3 Bears OG x Tyrone Stomper -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Sage Scout- Forum Stomper x Wizard's Apprentice -40 packs or less
Shekinah- Supernatural OG x Cosmic Queen, blessed by Hoodoo Moses -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Space Station Orange v.1- Orange Diesel x Cosmic Queen -40 packs or less, SOS Pack
Squanch Stomper- Samsquanch OG x Tyrone Stomper -40 packs or less
Wizard's Apprentice F3 Legacy Auto Regs (3 seeds) -40 packs or less
Zamaldelica Express F3 Legacy Auto Regs (3 seeds) -40 packs or less
Owl Pellets- ??? x ???- 10+ Seeds
Tester pack If you spent a total of $250
Pink Panama x Cosmic Queen
Drop Descriptions
Link to new thread for descriptions. Cosmic Revival - Cosmic Revival has not been tested, but I'm hoping to find some nice 1:1, 2:1, and 4:1 examples once I pop them for further line work and based off of what some hemp breeder mentors have been telling me. Currently they should run the gamit. Her flavors ranged from earthy, kushy, and there was even a milk chocolatey finisher in the mix, along with the beachy flavors found in Cosmic queen.
Thank you all for your patience with me these past few weeks. I've been handling a lot of business behind the scenes in preparation for big things next year. 2020 was the year of staying off the radar with most of my big projects and not drawing any unnecessary attention. 2021 is the year of getting licensed and really showing you what it's all about! Thank you for your trust and faith in me during my overly cautious past few months/years. I won't let you down.🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏New photo to autos scheduled for the first half of 2021: Pre '98 Bubba Kush x Auto Skywalker F4 Dosidos x Forum Stomper F4 Purple Punch x Forum Stomper F4 Sunset Sherbet x Forum Stomper F4
Secret Owl Society Text Club
The old phone number 474747 isn't in service anymore. If you'd like to join the Secret Owl Society Text Club, then text "nightowl" to (760) 670-3130. This feature SHOULD work for international users, use +1 if you're having trouble! If it still doesn't work with your telecommunications provider, it's rumored to work with a separate messaging application like Whatsapp.
NightOwl Sweaters New-ish Info
Although the new photo x auto crosses are still on hold, I will have some new collabs and maybe even a new SOS variety for the Valentine’s weekend drop. I’ll probably put up the last of the Shekinah too. 🙏🌱🦉🌱🙏
Since they were so well received, I'm planning on having more Varsity hoodies made in a different variant. I'd like to make one with the blue and white portions switched, and/or one using the burgundy/maroon color from the Secret Owl Society logo. I'm swamped right now but should have some time to dedicate to new merch after Christmas. 🙏🦉🙏
Halloween Leftovers So far Hembra Genetics and Insane Seeds has received some leftovers from the recent Halloween drop. They only have a limited quantity of certain cultivarI so check their sites, both ship internationally. --------------------------- Seedbank Exclusive Culitvar
New vendor exclusive limited-edition drop, live now!! I've spread these three new varieties out to my vendors in hopes of giving all of you a greater chance at getting them! They are a small batch and WILL NOT BE REMADE. Go support them because they've supported me. AT LEAST 4 SEEDS IN EVERY PACK, keychains, and slaps (while supplies last).
Strain Descriptions Foot Cheeze (Northern Cheeze Haze (UK Cheese pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) Extra frosty medium-large plants with sturdy side branching, dense golf ball nugs running up each branch, and a cheesy fruity smell ranging from citrus to red fruit. She finishes around 75 days from sprout, yields 2-4 ounces, and has a heavy narcotic affect. Head Cheeze (Northern Cheese Haze (Haze pheno) x Tyrone Stomper) A sweet lemony, uplifting pheno of Northern Cheese Haze met up with an extremely greasy Tyrone Stomper resulting in long greasy colas of piercing grapey haze flavors and effects. Heavy indulgence can lead to a lingering paranoia, so plan accordingly ahead of time. Finishes in approximately 70-75 days from sprout and yields around 2-4 ounces. Squanch Queen (Samsquanch OG x Cosmic Queen) Some people say creamy sweet gas doesn't exist, but it can be found within these large plants. Satellite branches will take off almost immediately and will require staking or training to make the most of them. Dense disco ball nugs climb up her branches, leading to beautiful flower clusters at the tip of each. Stepping back from the plant, you will see her overall crown shape right before your eyes. This is a heavy-hitting hybrid. The more you use the less productive that you will be. Happy and euphoric in smaller doses, she can create heavy eyelids and a severe lack of motivation when overdone. Finishes around 75 days from sprout.
You will get what you paid for 3 fem seeds, there's a chance you could get more than 3 seeds unless it says otherwise.
"My pack has a blank label, how do I know what I have?"
Those are the "Secret Owl Society" packs, they come labeled with UV ink. Daz almost always provides a small blacklight keychain, use it to reveal the pack name.
"Is there any freebies?"
Like Mephisto, Nightowl will give you 2 extra seeds on 3 seed pack orders. Same cultivar. No freebie tiers like Mephisto.
"I got a confirmation email, it still says "processing", should I be worried?"
As long as you have a confirmation email, then there's nothing to worry about your order has been received.
"Received tracking, no movement on the order since being scanned into Denver, or not scanned at all"
"Do I need TSB Premium to make a purchase, or do I purchase through Premium?"
No, you don't need TSB Premium to make a purchase. This was an option for paying members to get a chance to access the drop early. Nothing was exclusive to premium, everyone has access to all the strains. Go to the regular store page
"How do I register for a free account?"
There should be a sign-in button at the bottom of the page, or the NightOwl Store page. Look at this image to help.
"What do I do with my scratch card?"
Mail it in for the next drop, or any future drop NightOwl has specifically on TSB. When checking out select "mail-in cash/ money order". Once you complete the order, you should then get an email with mail-in details.
Know Thy Enemy: Kenneth C. Griffin, the Barbarian Behind the Gates of the Citadel
Привет идиоты, I have returned to inflict more psychic damage upon you about the sick fucks that make up the worldwide disease that is Big Capital. Today, I would like to talk to you about Kenneth Cordele Griffin, the founder and CEO of a little company called Citadel LLC. Now unless you have been living under a fucking rock for the past week or have drank yourself to the point of amnesia for one reason or another (forgivable), you are probably by now at least vaguely aware of what Citadel does and how it relates to current events surrounding GameStop and WSB's new favorite hedge fund, Melvin Capital. Seeing as how there's a few million more of you here now than there were last month when I was emptying the contents of the bowl of oatmeal that is my brain on these pages about present day financial crimes perpetrated by Citadel and their ilk and the ouroboros of Western intelligence agencies and Big Capital, let's do a quick recap. I do hope you take the time to read the full posts, because you may learn something interesting. PSTH=Stripe🚀🚀🚀
The markets and the flow of capital around the world are rife with financial crime.
The vast majority of this crime is perpetrated by large institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank. Some of this crime takes the form of laundering money for drug cartels, terrorists, pedophiles, and sex traffickers. Some of it involves manipulation of the markets.
The regulators in charge of dealing with these fucks are utterly spineless, to the point that any honest person must wonder out loud if they're in on it and getting a take. This phenomenon is known as regulatory capture and is a particularly insidious form of political corruption.
The CIA, since its inception in 1947, has acted as a sort of parallel government within the broader United States government, and has been the primary ideological engine of its foreign policy through its ties to Big Capital. That foreign policy has always kept the interests of business as its top priority. One might even call this the Deep State.
Who is Ken Griffin?
Ken Griffin is the absolute epitome of the archetypal scumfuck egomaniac asshole that embodies everything that is wrong with the ultra-rich class of Big Capital. Ahem, sorry. Let's try that again. Ken Griffin started his career out as a 🌈🐻 at the age of 19 while an undergraduate at Harvard, shorting the convertible bonds market and making a bunch of money off of the October 19th, 1987 crash, more commonly known as Black Monday. He graduated in 1989, supposedly returned 70% in his first year as a professional fund manager, and went on to found Citadel in 1990. Citadel has swelled to gargantuan size in the last 30 years. It apparently almost went under in 2008 during the financial crisis, but they were fine after the empty suit known as Barack Obama reneged on his campaign promises and fully sealed the transfer of the United States to Wall Street and the rest of the 1%. The hedge fund managed $35 billion as of October 2020 (probably less now LOLOLOL) and a little more than a quarter of all equity volume flows through Citadel Securities in their capacity as a market maker. He lives in Chicago, but that's not very important. I will note that Chicago has been a historically CIA rat-infested city, as evidenced by the group of University of Chicago-trained economists that helped carry out the regime change ops and aggressive neoliberalization of South America in the 20th century. He's not a complete political partisan, but he does tend to favor Republicans. He has donated to Democratic Party luminaries like Rod Blagojevich and Rahm Emanuel, libertarian psychopaths like the Koch Brothers, and neocon war hawk freaks like Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove. His most recent political contributions were to Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, the two imbecilic former Senators from Georgia who were both busted for dumping stocks on insider information shortly before the Great Beer Virus Crash of 2020. The thread tying these fine folks together is that what most people in the United States think of as politics is more akin to a game show than a real system of governance, and the ultra-rich value their class allegiance much higher than their allegiance to any one political party. As a slight aside, Loeffler's husband is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. How in the fuck is the spouse of a (formerly) sitting Senator allowed to hold that position? Yuck.
The Ken Griffin Real Estate Portfolio
(Disclaimer: Griffin may not still own every property in this section and I don't care to find out which, if any, he has divested himself from, because frankly, the levels of opulence make me feel fucking sick. Also, if this is considered d0xxing or something because some of these may be personal residences, I will remove them upon request. This is all publicly available information, though.)
132 East Delaware Place in Chicago, Illinois -- luxury high rise with residential units, office space, and retail stores
Many of the pieces listed here are not held personally by Griffin, but are loaned out to institutions like the Museum of Modern Art in New York and the Art Institute of Chicago. For the extreme smoothbrains among you, the reason Griffin blows giant bags on horrible pieces of art and puts them on public display is so that he can use them as tax writeoffs. Herein lies the part where you may call me a conspiracy theorist if you please, but I think Griffin's art portfolio is indicative of some type of covert relationship with the intelligence agencies. I sincerely do not believe that any person can reach these strata of society without at least brushing elbows with some glowies. The most expensive pieces in his collection come from the school of art known as abstract expressionism, which was quite literally a CIA-sponsored project meant to counter the influence of Soviet realism during the Cold War. The idea was that the Soviets would see the wacky vomitus that people like Jackson Pollock would spew all over a canvas as an expression of the ideals of freedom and individuality and break free of the bonds of Communism.
False Start by Jasper Johns. Housed at the MoMA, purchased by Griffin for $80 million.
Curtain, Jug and Fruit Bowl by Paul Cézanne. Housed at the Whitney Museum of American Art in New York. Purchased by the previous buyer at auction for $60.5 million -- Griffin's purchase price is not known.
Self Portrait by Paul Cézanne. I think this is the correct one. He did a whole bunch of these over the course of his life. Price unknown.
Water Lilies by Claude Monet. He did like 250 of these, this is the one that comes up when searching it with the year of the one Griffin is known to own, 1905. Price unknown.
The Green Dancer by Edgar Degas. On display at the Thyssen-Bornemisza Museum in Madrid, Spain
Little Dancer Aged Fourteen by Edgar Degas. An extraordinarily ugly wax sculpture on display at the National Gallery of Art in Washington, D.C.
Interchange by Willem de Kooning. Abstract expressionist trash purchased for $300 million from noted Jeffrey Epstein associate and suspected pedophile David Geffen. Recall that Epstein is highly suspected of being some type of intelligence asset tasked with blackmailing rich scumbags by anyone who has studied his story closely.
Number 17A by Jackson Pollock. More abstract expression trash, also purchased from David Geffen for $200 million.
How does Citadel spend its money?
Good question! They buy politicians. Remember regulatory capture? Here's Citadel doing just that: current Secretary of the Treasury, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, and sentient potato woman Janet Yellen took more than $800,000 in speaking fees from Citadel. In fact, Yellen "earned" over $7 million in speaking fees from various other financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup between her stints at the Fed and at Treasury. What do we think? Is she just such an enrapturing speaker that she's worth every penny? Or is she getting a kickback for helping to deregulate financial markets and a bribe to look the other way when short sellers and market makers collude to shut retail traders out of the market en masse, like they did yesterday with GME? They also buy stakes in distressed hedge funds, apparently. Remember the $2.75 billion bailout that Citadel and Point72 gave to Melvin Capital on Monday, which they promptly pissed away doubling down on their GME short? Isn't it weird that Robinhood shut down trading on the very stocks that the hedge funds were bleeding out from and then forced people to liquidate their long positions at the very bottom of a coordinated short seller attack? Doesn't it seem a little strange that the hedge fund branch of Citadel is allowed to own part of another hedge fund that's being bled dry, as Citadel Securities buys order flow from Robinhood to illegally front-run retail orders? There's also this, on the topic of Melvin Capital and pedophiles and sex traffickers: Melvin Capital's 5th largest long holding is a company called L Brands, which is the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works. Victoria's Secret, as seasoned Jeffrey Epstein gumshoes will know, was founded by one Leslie Wexner, who had a very troubling relationship with Epstein. Epstein was Wexner's personal money manager and Wexner was Epstein's only known client. Wexner and Epstein were so close that Wexner gave Epstein a mansion on the Upper East Side in Manhattan in 2011, years after it was already known that he was a pedophile creep. Epstein would tell the girls he was sexually assaulting that he was a modeling scout for Victoria's Secret. Jean-Luc Brunel, another Epstein-associated "modeling scout" and sex criminal who was recently arrested in France, would supply models to Victoria's Secret through his agency MC2 Model Management. Basically, what I'm saying is that Melvin Capital, and now Citadel by extension, are long sex trafficking pedophiles.
How can I poke this asshole in the eye?
It seems like there's two big things you can do to do your part. The first is to 💎👐 GME. The institutions are clearly scared shitless at how much blowback is coming their way or they wouldn't be taking such drastic measures to try to tip the scales in the favor of the shorts at the expense of everyone else. Turn off share lending in your brokerage if you can and still haven't. The second is to transfer your assets out of Robinhood yesterday and graduate to a big boy brokerage. Citadel Securities (remember, this is the market maker, not the hedge fund) banked a record $6.7 billion in profit last year. You can bet that this has at least a little to do with the influx of Robinhooders pressing the market order button on their phones and letting Citadel front run their orders while Robinhood gives them a garbage fill.
TLDR: Ken Griffin final boss. Citadel bad. Robinhood bad. GME go up. Stop FOMOing into other dumb shit and stick to the plan.
I think WSB is sleeping on a huge opportunity in Apple this month. Here’s why.
TLDR: Due to a confluence of factors (none of which are technical analysis), I believe a perfect storm is likely forming for a monster, historic ER occurring sometime in late January. The initial main factor for this was that COVID issues were causing a delay in the iPhone 12 launch, pushing it into to this quarter, but that led me to discover numerous other factors now making up my thesis. I believe not only will earnings grow, but the multiple could even expand. How to play it: calls dated end of Jan or mid Feb.
Analysis:
Happy hangover day, fellow autists. I believe opportunities are rare to know when an ER is going to blow it out of the water by enough to overcome IV crush based on more than just a hunch, and when they occur once or twice per year you should swing big. When I play earnings releases, I’m almost always just a seller of spreads so that I can profit off of theta/IV crush surrounding the ER (theta gang always wins). This time however, I’ve bought outright calls. Here is what I’m seeing with Apple:
The iPhone 12 delay could mean huge YoY comparisons.
What kicked all this off was that two months ago I realized we could be heading for huge numbers this quarter due to an atypical delay in the launch of the newest iPhone. Typically new iPhones are announced in mid-September with preorders beginning immediately and shipments beginning before the end of the month. However this year because of COIVD delays the launch date got pushed into October. The iPhone 12 preorders began mid-October with shipments a week later, and the iPhone 12 mini and Max began preorders November 6. And that means no sales of the new models counted in the quarter ended Sept. 30 (Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter)as they usually do. This year all of those opening day sales have fallen into the upcoming fiscal Q1, setting up a potentially huge quarter in sales and making for easy YoY comparisons right out of the gate. Here’s a Fortune article on the delay of the launch.
The “super cycle” rumors appear to be true.
As a lover of new tech, I always have to remind myself that the average person doesn’t care about incremental new features as much as I do. So when I heard rumors earlier this year that Apple could be facing a “super cycle” of upgrades due to 5G, I was skeptical. How much does the average person really care about spotty 5G service enough to jump on a new iPhone? But based on reports starting to come out, those rumors appear to be correct. I’ve seen a few articles suggesting a super cycle not seen since the iPhone 6. Here’s a Yahoo Finance article on Wedbush’s analysis. Here are some notable quotes from that article since I know we don’t read around here.
"Based on our recent Asia checks we believe the supply chain is anticipating low to mid 90 million iPhone unit builds … a roughly 35% increase from our original and Street forecasts," says Ives, who covers AAPL stock for Wedbush. Compare that to the firm's expectations for iPhone 12 unit sales over time. Three months ago, Wedbush expected 65 million to 70 million unit builds for the December quarter; it raised its outlook to 75 million units in late October; and in mid-December, it set a "stretch goal" in the mid-80 million range. Wall Street broadly sees AAPL selling 217 million iPhones in the company's fiscal 2021, but Wedbush's bull case is "north of 240 million units (250 million could be in the cards – an eye popping figure)" that would easily surpass the 231 million units the company sold in its fiscal 2015. "We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.".
That bump in production would represent a 30% year-over-year increase in smartphone models produced, and is also well ahead of current Wall Street expectations, Ives wrote.
It’s anecdotal, but I personally skipped the iPhone 11 upgrade because I was perfectly content with my XS Max, however I did buy the 12 Pro Max.
The iPhone 12 sales mix:
It’s not just that phone sales will be up on the iphone 12 launch, it’s the mix within those sales. Typically when Apple launches phones they sell more of the of the entry level new phones than they do the premium, because the total addressable market is bigger. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time. As early as September people were reporting that Apple was making more higher end iPhone 12 models than entry-level handsets anticipating a shift in demand, and they appear to have been correct. Last year the entry level iPhone 11s outsold the premium iPhone 11s by a three to one margin. This year almost immediately after launch people were reporting that the premium iPhone 12s were selling as much as the entry models. Since then, there have been reports trickling out that the premium iPhone 12s appear to actually be outselling the entry level versions.
Apple sold out of nearly everything they make for Christmas.
See further below for one of the reasons this may have happened, in both my “macro” and “risks” sections. Apple introduced a slough of new products from iMacs to watches this year, and they sold out of all of them. The list of sold-out products at Christmas included the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max; iPad, iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad Mini; MacBook Air and Pro; iMac and iMac Pro; HomePod mini, and AirPods Max.Here’s a Barron’s article mentioning the sell outs. Apple wearables, I would argue, are now what economists call Veblen goods. These are unique products where the demand curve actually increases as the price increases. This can happen in goods such as wine, where the consumer lacks the knowledge in how to evaluate the product so they take pricing as a signal of quality. But another reason you can get that skewed demand curve is if the product conveys status. One example of this is sports cars. You can buy cars with 90% of the performance of the ultra top end cars for 30% of the price, but that’s not the point of owning them, is it? How often are you really out at the track? Lambo isn’t in competition with $50k sports cars. They could raise the price $50k per car and people who can afford them would just want them more. Louis Vuitton bags and $50,000 Birkin purses are more examples. In fact with Birkin they not only constantly raise prices, they forbid people from buying them. You have to spend a lot of money on other lower tier products before you’re “allowed” to even buy a Birkin bag. This just makes new money women want them even more. Those are dramatic examples of course and Apple isn’t behaving that way, but Apple just introduced very overpriced, new over-the-ear headphones which cost almost twice as much as the leading competitor, and yet...Apple sold out of every single color in the first two weeks and hit a three month waiting list by Christmas on a product that I would assume due to its high pricing has very fat margins. Apple charging twice as much makes them more appealing, not less, because wearables are worn and thus seen by your peers (and the opposite sex).
The Twitter rumor mill is reporting parts moving at a brisk pace
I can’t track down the things I’ve read here and there on Twitter and I’m starting to run out of steam here, so you may have to do some searching on your own, but people who usually track movement of parts through the companies forming Apple’s supply chain and normally have a good track record with their reports have reported that parts are moving through the chain at a very brisk pace. This is addressed some in the reports on the iPhone supply chain in my earlier links.
App sales are crushing it.
Thanks probably in part to quarantine, app sales have been crushing it and grew ~35% this December compared to ~17% the prior year, meaning sales have grown at twice the pace.
Reoccurring revenue bundle numbers will be announced
The biggest thing I’ve learned from 2020 is that nothing matters more to the market than the narrative surrounding the reoccurring revenue bundle...aka subscriptions. A company announces its cutting its dividend, but then tells you that’s because its going to pour all that money into boosting its subscriptions? The stock skyrockets. Look at Disney. ATT may be able to pull this off as well if it can convince people of that narrative with WarneHBO max and cut its dividend to pour it into content, but that’s a big “if” for them. Apple launched their new reoccurring revenue bundle this year. I personally signed up for the premium tier and now owe Apple $30 per month for the rest of my life. I was already paying them to backup my phone to the cloud, and now their bundle has thrown me into Apple Music, Apple TV+, etc. I am firmly entrenched in the Apple universe whether I like it or not. It is these reoccurring revenue numbers that offer the possibility of earnings multiple expansion.
RISKS
Are sellouts due to high demand, or due to COVID-related production problems? I don’t know. Based on the reports I’ve read, some of which have been linked earlier in my post, it sounds like everything is running full speed in China and the supply chain is running at near or above a record clip. One possible risk is that this was not the case earlier this year and thus Apple sold out of things because they hadn’t produced enough heading into Christmas. I personally believe that production may have taken a huge hit early in the calendar year, but by mid to late 2020 this was no longer a significant issue. I also believe that even if sales have taken a slight hit due to production, the market wouldn’t really care. Markets are forward looking. They know COVID has impacted things globally, and even if Apple reports sales difficulties they will be paired with significantly increased guidance for Q2. New reports have suggested that Apple has had to increase its iPhone production plans for 2021 by 20-30% because of strong demand An announcement like that is not a recipe for a stock crash. Macro factors causing a crash. A lot of people around here appear to be scared of an impending crash. This seems to be based on the simple idea that stocks have run up a lot and therefore must crash. A reversion to the mean is imminent. I don’t see it that way and I think the economy is more complex than that. Just because something has gone up a lot does not mean it’s going to crash. People have been warning of a California real estate crash for 70 years. I’m a little bit older than you guys (by probably about 10-15 years) and I can remember the market frenzy of the dot.com boom. A lot of people were saying the same thing then, and while they were ultimately proven right, they were very early. I remember seeing another year to year and a half of enormous gains after hearing all those warnings. Of course the problem with musical chairs is that we never know when the music will stop, but I would argue if anything stocks are roughly fairly valued, not dangerously overvalued. As we go into 2021, we face the following conditions: a vaccine roll out that sometime between now and late ‘21 will lead us into a v-shaped recovery. The Krugman argument for this vision, and The Bloomberg argument for this vision. We also just had the Fed reaffirm 0% interest rates and the continuation of QE. Add to all of that very easy YoY earnings comps for the first two quarters of this year and this is not a recipe for a crash, it’s a recipe for a steady market melt up. Where are the rich supposed to put all their money in a 0% interest rate environment? 0% pushes up the value of all asset classes, and this is especially true of real estate and stonks. Generally speaking, predicting macro economic movements is a losing game, but all of those things combined with the easy YoY comps means I don’t feel the need to be concerned of an impending correction for at least the next two quarters. A much smaller factor but still a factor, I have seen it suggested that Apple will be among the larger beneficiaries of the stimulus checks going out, although those have not started rolling out until just now so that may have an impact on Q2 if any. Bad subscription numbers If subscriptions to Apple One flopped, this could significantly overshadow sales and earnings numbers. I personally feel Apple isn’t likely to seriously miscalculate predictions on a subscription bundle because they have their market dialed in, but I don’t know that for sure. Sales could have cratered in October Sales often drop a little in the weeks preceding a phone launch. What if phone sales tanked during the delays waiting for an iPhone 12? That could be bad. I’m encouraged by the fact that iPhone 11 models appeared to still be having good sales numbers when the iPhone 12 was launched (see links earlier in this post), but I don’t really know what October sales look like. COVID could have tanked all phone sales. This report says all phone activations generally tanked 23% on Christmas Day. Two thoughts I have on that, that number is for all phone activations, not just iPhones. And two, that’s just for Christmas Day itself. There could be a wide array of reasons activations were down on that one day. To counter that, this report says the iPhone was the best selling 5G phone, even in October despite the phone not launching until the second half of that month. Additionally that article mentions pent up demand for 5G apple phones that sales are likely to be strong going forward.
Technical Analysis
I don’t believe in technical analysis. Charts don’t know any of the things I just explained, and are therefore, in my opinion, useless to me. Maybe somebody has figured out a system for charts to predict the future, but I am not that person.
Price Target
I don’t pretend to know things like that.
Fun rumors
I’m not big on speculative rumors and momentum type plays, but if that’s your thing there are certainly rumors in the air. The most famous of which is the rumor that Apple is back to working seriously on an EV Car. Another is reports are just coming out in the last day or two that Apple is seeing new successes in developing foldable tech. Whether these things will impact the stock price isn’t really my cup of tea, but if it’s yours those are two things to consider.
Is my post an attempt at a WSB pump and dump?
I’m under no allusions that my own WSB post is going to alter the trajectory of a $2.25 trillion company in any meaningful way. That sort of thing may work on a post-IPO company that hasn’t had its lockup expiration yet and thus has a tiny float (aka PLTR or numerous other recent “to the moon” meme stocks) with limited float. (That’s not to say those aren’t great companies or great trades. I’m just sayin’).
My positions:
I’m more conservative than most of WSB. While I love this place with all my heart and love you guys for it, I believe risking it all to chase screenshot-worthy gains is moronic and not the path to building real, long-term wealth. Thus my positions are probably more conservative than you’d expect. I have 20% of my net worth tied up in Apple via LEAPs. 9/16/2022 AAPL $87.50 calls. I consider this to be essentially stock I hold for the long term. Delta is approaching 1 anyway so they practically are stock. Sometime in the depths of March I loaded up on FAANG LEAPs with the intention of actually holding them for years and then converting to shares. Those LEAPs were a little OTM at the time I bought them. I have no interest in day trading my significant LEAP positions so that’s going to sit there for the next two years. But I also have put an additional 15% of my net worth into short term calls on Apple to play the ER. I have Feb 19 $130 calls which were about 10-15% OTM at the time I bought them. They are currently ITM. I also have 1/29 $135s and 1/29 $141s. This puts 35% of my net worth into Apple.
How to get rich
I intend to cash out my short term calls after the ER, and I don’t intend to reinvest or roll them out because I suspect Apple will be fully valued by then and there are better plays out there. I intend to keep my LEAPS because I bought those for the very long term and because at the very least I should hold them until March to hit the long term capital gains tax rate. I intend to take my profits from the calls and push them into shorting NNOX and XPEV, both of which have significant lockup expirations coming in mid to late February which I believe will significantly impact the stock prices in the short term. I have no interest in shorting XPEV right now, because you guys are crazy as fuck and for all I know EV stonks could all run up another 50% in the next month. Right about the time the Apple ER hits should be perfect.
Criticism
If you think I’m wrong, I would strongly encourage you to comment. I don’t give a fuck about looking correct or saving face but I give many fucks about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it.
The Most Important Factor
This ain’t my first day around here, and I know that DD is absolutely useless without rocketships, therefore: APPLE TO THE 🌙 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀. Godspeed, fellow autists.
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